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Waste Management & Research
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A Forecast Model of Refuse Tonnage With Recapture and Uncertainty Bounds

Edward A. McBean

Department of Civil Engineering, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario N2L 3G1, Canada

Michael H. P. Fortin

Guelph, Ontario N1H 5K5, Canada

A spreadsheet model for forecasting solid waste tonnages is described. The model uses generation coefficients from the technical literature associated with individual material components (paper, glass, metals, plastics and rubber, organic materials, construction waste, inerts and other) to express the amount of waste produced per capita and per employee in the labor force. Estimates of quantities being generated by two major groups, namely domestic and industrial/commercial/institutional sources are reflected in the model's output. Using this disaggregated format, the model estimates total waste, recaptured waste (as a result of policy initiatives), and net refuse. Confidence intervals are developed using a regression model related to the business cycle. Two worked examples are given for data obtained in Canada.

Key Words: Solid waste • forecast model • materials recapture • Canada.

Waste Management & Research, Vol. 11, No. 5, 373-385 (1993)
DOI: 10.1177/0734242X9301100502
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